At least one Entso-e supranational brownout or blackout or rolling blackout above 15 min.

Created by atzeje on 2022-09-17; known on 2023-04-01; judged wrong by atzeje on 2023-04-10.

• atzeje estimated 65% on 2022-09-17
• atzeje estimated 45% on 2022-09-27
• atzeje estimated 10% and said “baseline: 10% p.a. twice of that bc. 1. ukraine adds instability, 2. french nuclear crunch, 3. german nuclear exit, 4. gas shortage.Note: I don’t count ukraine regarding blackouts.” on 2022-11-14
• atzeje   judged this prediction wrong on 2023-04-10.