Sam Bankman-Fried will be arrested before January 1, 2024, on charges related to the (as of 2022-11-10) liquidity crunch at FTX.

Created by pmberg on 2022-11-10; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2022-12-13.

• pmberg estimated 5% on 2022-11-10
• JoshuaZ estimated 12% on 2022-11-11
• PseudonymousUser estimated 60% on 2022-11-12
• PseudonymousUser estimated 70% on 2022-11-13
• JoshuaZ estimated 51% and said “The recent stuff makes it look so much worse.” on 2022-11-13
• danielfilan estimated 80% on 2022-11-13
• chemotaxis101 estimated 75% on 2022-11-14
• Baeboo estimated 70% on 2022-11-14
• PseudonymousUser estimated 65% on 2022-11-21
• elecnix estimated 25% on 2022-12-10
• PseudonymousUser said “https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/12/ftx-founder-sam-bankman-fried-arrested-in-the-bahamas-after-us-files-criminal-charges.html” on 2022-12-13
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction right on 2022-12-13.