Transformers are the final architecture needed for AGI

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 19 days ago; known on 2099-01-01

  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 85% 19 days ago
  • Tapetum-Lucidum said “Prediction is agnostic to training curriculum used, data availability issues with AGI, training data modalities, use of auxiliary architectures like convnets for vision, etc. If 2099 occurs before AGI, prediction is marked as false. 19 days ago
  • Tapetum-Lucidum said “If something comes along and replaces the transformer the way transformers replaced LSTMs, and that something proves necessary for AGI, then the prediction would also be false. 19 days ago
  • chemotaxis101 estimated 72% 18 days ago
  • dmwit estimated 8% and said “I give “no transformer at all” about 80-85% chance (e.g. “breakthrough in asynchronous architectures” seems fairly likely). When “no transformer” fails, “yes transformers, but at least one nontrivial non-transformer component” seems quite likely.17 days ago
  • sty.silver estimated 10% 14 days ago
  • Baeboo estimated 25% 11 days ago

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