Transformers are the final architecture needed for AGI

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-18; known on 2099-01-01

• Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 85% on 2023-01-18
• Tapetum-Lucidum said “Prediction is agnostic to training curriculum used, data availability issues with AGI, training data modalities, use of auxiliary architectures like convnets for vision, etc. If 2099 occurs before AGI, prediction is marked as false. ” on 2023-01-18
• Tapetum-Lucidum said “If something comes along and replaces the transformer the way transformers replaced LSTMs, and that something proves necessary for AGI, then the prediction would also be false. ” on 2023-01-18
• chemotaxis101 estimated 72% on 2023-01-19
• dmwit estimated 8% and said “I give “no transformer at all” about 80-85% chance (e.g. “breakthrough in asynchronous architectures” seems fairly likely). When “no transformer” fails, “yes transformers, but at least one nontrivial non-transformer component” seems quite likely.” on 2023-01-20
• sty.silver estimated 10% on 2023-01-23
• Baeboo estimated 25% on 2023-01-26

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