Predictionbook's overall statistics will remain overconfident (Confidence > accuracy in all six buckets) by 2015.

Created by sdr on 2013-08-24; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by atroche on 2015-01-01.

• sdr estimated 80% on 2013-08-24
• Peter Hurford estimated 90% on 2013-08-26
• procran estimated 98% on 2013-08-27
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 80% on 2013-08-28
• holycow81 estimated 91% on 2013-08-28
• HonoreDB estimated 85% on 2013-08-29
• RandomThinker estimated 75% on 2013-08-30
• JoshuaZ estimated 86% on 2013-08-31
• mfb estimated 75% and said “The deviation at 60% (58%) is not very significant” on 2013-08-31
• Michael Dickens estimated 80% on 2013-09-07
• Jayson Virissimo said “Looks like this is slightly overconfident.” on 2013-09-11
• atroche estimated 70% on 2013-09-17
• atroche   judged this prediction right on 2015-01-01.