[At decision squares, the 5×5 rand-region cheese maze network will put max cumulative probability on the maximal-advantage action at least] 75% of the time

Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-09; known on 2023-02-16

  • TurnTrout estimated 45% on 2023-02-09
  • peligrietzer estimated 30% on 2023-02-09
  • uli estimated 50% and said “Capabilities for the 5×5 model usually (probably ~80% of the time or so) put max probability on the cheese path, so the main fall would be from advantage function disagreeingon 2023-02-12
  • uli estimated 65% and said “Update from realizing the question doesn’t ask us to pick the cheese path, just the max advantage pathon 2023-02-12
  • sty.silver estimated 44% and said “45 is clearly improper calibrationon 2023-02-14
  • TurnTrout estimated 45% and said “lolon 2023-02-15
  • TurnTrout changed the deadline from “on 2023-02-1625 days ago
  • rhaps0dy estimated 70% 24 days ago

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