Biden loses the 2024 presidential election

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-02-15; known on 2025-02-01

  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 70% on 2023-02-15
  • Tapetum-Lucidum said “Between union busting, the Ohio situation, inflation, and the constant contradictions on the UAPs, the administration is looking pretty incompetent lately. on 2023-02-15
  • Tapetum-Lucidum said “Meanwhile, the unpopularity amongst Democrats of his eventual opponent is unlikely to be significantly different than in 2020. I expect this to decrease voter turnout among Democrats relative to 2020. on 2023-02-15
  • JoshuaZ estimated 33% on 2023-02-15
  • XTXinverseXTY estimated 26% and said “I’m interpreting this as P(Biden runs as dem nominee AND loses election). If he’s not the dem nominee, he doesn’t lose the 2024 election. Unless everyone but Joe Biden technically lost the 2020 election.22 days ago
  • kwangotango estimated 35% and said “P(Biden loses | Biden has won nomination) Incumbents tend to win, plus incumbents whose hands are tied by the opposition party tend to do even better (allows them to make plausible claims to be moderate = aligned with persuadable voters)19 days ago
  • kwangotango said “Plus, without Trump as a disrupting force, Republicans are reverting back to their class interests and (extremely unpopular) core issues: cutting entitlements, privatizing social sec and medicare. Reps can offer much worse solutions than Dems to19 days ago
  • kwangotango said “budget constrained environments – taxes on the rich are much more popular than cuts affecting the poor. Unless we somehow enter into another era of low rates/a culture war chum issue like war/migration becomes top of mind, Dems will keep the edge.19 days ago
  • kwangotango said “But it’s very plausible that issues where Reps win like crime or migration dominate the cycle, or that Biden deteriorates physically/mentally too much to make a plausible candidate. 19 days ago
  • kwangotango said “another potential for a Biden win: the supreme court is so far right that he basically gets to act as the opposition party while being in power – Roe overturn was a huge win, student debt rejection will probably be a win too.19 days ago
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 40% 18 days ago
  • Tapetum-Lucidum said “Updating. Biden has managed to get past of the Ohio news cycle in good shape, helped by the governor’s refusal to accept help. Biden has the overturning of Roe v Wade and the student loan forgiveness as potential talking points. 18 days ago
  • Tapetum-Lucidum said “Ron DeSantis continues to be a closeted tryhard fascist, and Donald Trump is a bit low energy and lacks an effective political strategist like Paul Manafort. 18 days ago
  • atzeje estimated 38% and said “Conditional on him being nominated.9 days ago

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