Artificial intelligence radically disrupts the global economy within 2 years

Created by sjy on 2023-03-28; known on 2025-04-01

• sjy estimated 30% on 2023-03-28
• sjy said “This prediction will be hard to judge, but I’ll try to make it easier by commenting with links to other predictions which I am trying to capture under the umbrella of radical disruption.” on 2023-03-28
• sjy said “https://twitter.com/EpsilonTheory/status/1638864275065241601 It’s not just engineering. Every analyst/associate/junior on sell-side or buy-side is now obsolete. Seriously, you are about to be replaced. GPT4 is as proudly disruptive as the internet.” on 2023-03-28
• sjy said “https://twitter.com/webdevMason/status/1639797826925502464 the jobs under imminent threat by AI are good, comfy jobs … This is happening very, very soon and it’s going to create an extremely salient crisis” on 2023-03-28
• sjy said “https://twitter.com/nearcyan/status/1640098370936094721 I’m pretty confident anyone reasonable will reverse their opinions on [AI x-risk] after the next 2 or so years actually plays out” on 2023-03-28
• sjy said “https://twitter.com/thenewstack/status/1638676940914671616 A former professor of computer science and Google engineering manager thinks generative AI will lead to the end of programming within 3 years” on 2023-03-28
• sjy said “https://twitter.com/RichardMCNgo/status/1640568775018975232 I predict that by the end of 2025 neural nets will … beat any human at writing down effective multi-step real-world plans … autonomously design, code and distribute whole apps …” on 2023-03-28
• Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 30% on 2023-03-31
• chemotaxis101 estimated 25% on 2023-04-01
• rudyon estimated 45% on 2023-04-01
• sjy said “https://twitter.com/AgileChatGPT/status/1650084760276877315 We are at most six months away from a self repairing, self build and deploying, self requirements gathering engine.” on 2023-04-23
• JoshuaZ estimated 24% on 2023-04-23
• Medea estimated 15% on 2023-05-01
• Baeboo estimated 14% on 2023-05-02

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