General consensus that LK-99 or some component of it is a room temp superconductor by Sept 1.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-07-31; known on 2023-09-02; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-09-02.

• JoshuaZ estimated 32% on 2023-07-31
• PseudonymousUser estimated 36% on 2023-08-02
• PseudonymousUser estimated 42% and said “https://arxiv.org/abs/2308.01516” on 2023-08-04
• jensln estimated 30% on 2023-08-04
• PseudonymousUser estimated 43% and said “https://twitter.com/andrewmccalip/status/1687405505604734978” on 2023-08-05
• PseudonymousUser estimated 53% and said “https://arxiv.org/abs/2308.01723” on 2023-08-05
• PseudonymousUser said “As a layman, I found the paragraph just above the conclusion in the last paper to be interesting” on 2023-08-05
• PseudonymousUser estimated 55% and said “https://www.reddit.com/r/LK99/comments/15k555y/the_vp_of_kentech_the_only_institute_with_samples/” on 2023-08-07
• JoshuaZ estimated 6% on 2023-08-08
• JoshuaZ said “Updating primarily per https://arxiv.org/abs/2308.03110 which seems to take away multiple lines of evidence.” on 2023-08-08
• JoshuaZ estimated 7% and said “Updating per https://arxiv.org/abs/2308.03218 .” on 2023-08-08
• PseudonymousUser estimated 11% on 2023-08-09
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2023-08-09
• PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2023-08-10
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2023-09-02.