A paper proposing a better method for creating LK-99 is published on arxiv by Friday

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-08-06; known on 2023-08-11; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-08-12.

• PseudonymousUser estimated 40% on 2023-08-06
• PseudonymousUser said “Better = higher claimed purity or better experimental results, e.g., full levitation” on 2023-08-06
• PseudonymousUser said “Prediction is based on remarks on Chinese social media” on 2023-08-06
• PseudonymousUser estimated 60% on 2023-08-07
• PseudonymousUser estimated 70% on 2023-08-09
• PseudonymousUser estimated 8% on 2023-08-09
• JoshuaZ estimated 12% and said “There are still a lot of groups poking at this, even though evidence seems to be strongly leaning in one direction at this point. ” on 2023-08-10
• PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2023-08-10
• PseudonymousUser said “There’s a theory paper suggesting annealing in oxygen instead of a vacuum, but it uses x=0 or 0.5 instead of x between 0.9 and 1.1. As a result, I am inclined to exclude it. ” on 2023-08-12
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction wrong on 2023-08-12.