PredictionBook transitioning to read-only mode at the end of 2023 ( read more ).

A paper proposing a better method for creating LK-99 is published on arxiv by Friday

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-08-06; known on 2023-08-11; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-08-12.

  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 40% on 2023-08-06
  • Tapetum-Lucidum said “Better = higher claimed purity or better experimental results, e.g., full levitationon 2023-08-06
  • Tapetum-Lucidum said “Prediction is based on remarks on Chinese social mediaon 2023-08-06
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 60% on 2023-08-07
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 70% on 2023-08-09
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 8% on 2023-08-09
  • JoshuaZ estimated 12% and said “There are still a lot of groups poking at this, even though evidence seems to be strongly leaning in one direction at this point. on 2023-08-10
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 0% on 2023-08-10
  • Tapetum-Lucidum said “There’s a theory paper suggesting annealing in oxygen instead of a vacuum, but it uses x=0 or 0.5 instead of x between 0.9 and 1.1. As a result, I am inclined to exclude it. on 2023-08-12
  • Tapetum-Lucidum   judged this prediction wrong on 2023-08-12.

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