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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Artisan of Forms

Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.

  • Roxolan estimated 3% on 2013-09-14
  • ygert estimated 8% and said “@Roxolan: In general, as I said before, a 3% baseline is too low. Assuming a moderately diverse metagame, I can’t see less than 10 or so new rares/mythics played. Out of the 68 total, that should imply the mean is 6.8.” on 2013-09-25
  • ygert said “I can see more than 10 being played, so that should be treated a minimum to that mean, which could be more like 8-10%. Of course, the median will be quite a bit lower than the mean, ” on 2013-09-25
  • ygert said “as much of the probability mass is concentrated in a few card which will almost certainly be played. All in all, I’d estimate the probability of a typical, none shoe-in rare making it to be 5-7%.” on 2013-09-25
  • ygert said “Artisan of Forms is on the high side of that, but not by much.” on 2013-09-25
  • ygert said “Artisan of Forms is on the high side of that, but not by much.” on 2013-09-25
  • Roxolan said “Like you, I expect 10/68 or so (sanity-checked based on the 2011 World Championship top 8). But some cards ate up a lot of probability mass. With Thoughtseize at 97%, not every random rare can be at 10%.” on 2013-09-25
  • Roxolan said “And I don’t see Artisan of Form on the high side.” on 2013-09-25
  • ygert said “I see were you are coming from. 3% and ~5% are quite similar, so we also reached a similar final conclusion. As to Artisan of Forms, I agree it is not a frontrunner,” on 2013-09-27
  • ygert said “ but if there is a blue deck that plays heroic enablers, Artisan of forms seems useful enough tech for them to give it a solid look. I also agree that it is unlikely that it is played, but more likely than your typical junk rare.” on 2013-09-27
  • ygert   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-10-13.
  • Roxolan said “Was right here, but still greatly underestimated the number of Theros rares that would see play (24/68). Expected something like the pre-Theros Standard decks. Was completely blindsided by all the devotion-heavy mono-colored decks.” on 2013-10-13
  • Roxolan said “Oh and thanks for doing all the judging.” on 2013-10-13