FF: a prolonged series of predictions (and reflection on the predictions) will help separate things which can be predicted (and which it is useful to predict) from those which are immune to prediction.

Created by zzkt on 2013-10-09; known on 2015-10-01; judged wrong by zzkt on 2015-10-23.

• zzkt estimated 50% on 2013-10-09
• SmoothPorcupine estimated 2% and said “I’d give you maybe three predictions before you figure out you can’t predict much of anything yet.” on 2015-10-18
• zzkt said “There was an insufficient series of predictions…” on 2015-10-23
• zzkt   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-10-23.