I will attempt the Uberman sleep schedule over winter break 2013-14 and last at least 7 days (take 42 naps on the schedule without other sleep, and wake up from the 42nd nap on time).

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-22; known on 2014-01-26; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-26.

• PseudonymousUser estimated 27% on 2013-10-22
• PseudonymousUser said “Very heavy inside view here. We’ll see how well it works out.” on 2013-10-22
• bsm estimated 20% on 2013-10-27
• ChristianKl estimated 14% on 2013-10-29
• PseudonymousUser estimated 34% and said “Slightly decreasing P(succeed|attempt) (I got sick a couple days ago and sickness would hinder my ability to succeed), but P(attempt) has increased.” on 2013-11-01
• PseudonymousUser estimated 1% and said “I’m pretty sure this schedule wouldn’t be sustainable for me.” on 2013-11-24
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-01-26.