PredictionBook is now read-only ( read more ).

I will speak (under any nickname) more than 50 lines total in #lesswrong, between now and 2014

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.

  • PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2013-12-01
  • PseudonymousUser said “averaged 50 lines/day in Nov 2013” on 2013-12-01
  • PseudonymousUser said “8 days in and feeling much better already” on 2013-12-08
  • Lagren estimated 25% and said “Habits are difficult to break. Posting this and estimating 0% is evidence for a wish to post more, not less. I don’t know the circumstances, so let’s call it 1-in-4. ” on 2013-12-13
  • PseudonymousUser said “The first 10 days were painful but it was easy from there – I don’t estimate 0/100% lightly, to spare my calibration graph” on 2013-12-23
  • PseudonymousUser said “44 lines” on 2014-01-01
  • PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-01-01.