Tony Abbott will not be the prime minister after the next federal election.

Created by waveman on 2013-12-03; known on 2016-09-09; judged right by waveman on 2015-09-19.

• waveman estimated 55% on 2013-12-03
• Ben Doherty estimated 60% on 2013-12-13
• atroche estimated 40% on 2013-12-15
• waveman estimated 65% and said “Updating due to the many blatant broken promises in the budget, and the large amount of pain inflicted.” on 2014-05-15
• JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2014-05-15
• atroche estimated 50% on 2014-05-15
• atroche estimated 60% on 2014-05-23
• waveman estimated 70% and said “http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2014/05/27/abbotts-end-37-the-last-nine-days/” on 2014-05-30
• rebellionkid estimated 50% on 2014-09-21
• Calien estimated 75% on 2014-09-22
• mad estimated 80% and said “As the two party preferred stands now, the libs are in trouble! http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/” on 2015-01-07
• waveman estimated 90% on 2015-02-02
• waveman said “I am going to say this is confirmed as he has now been deposed as leader.” on 2015-09-19
• waveman   judged this prediction right on 2015-09-19.