Chris Dixon: Amazon.com will be using bitcoins in 5 years (by 1/1/2019)
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-12-13; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
- RandomThinker estimated 35% on 2013-12-13
- RandomThinker said “http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/12/12/venture-capital-bets-big-on-bitcoin/” on 2013-12-13
- RandomThinker said “Using is quite broad, but a common easy option on the site to pay for goods with it would count.” on 2013-12-13
- Lagren estimated 25% and said “I’d put this lower than a 1-in-3 chance. Bitcoin might have a shot at it, but currently has quite low penetration.” on 2013-12-13
- Jayson Virissimo estimated 20% on 2013-12-17
- Ben Doherty estimated 50% on 2013-12-17
- commercecat estimated 15% and said “Requires mainstream bitcoin adoption, regulatory acceptance, and Amazon still being around, so I’m skeptical.” on 2013-12-17
- lavalamp estimated 8% on 2013-12-18
- lavalamp said “Assuming “using” means I can use them to buy stuff at Amazon directly.” on 2013-12-18
- ygert estimated 20% on 2013-12-19
- qap estimated 20% on 2013-12-21
- atroche estimated 2% on 2013-12-21
- qap estimated 35% and said “Increased my estimate due to this: http://www.coindesk.com/overstock-unveils-more-details-bitcoin-adoption/” on 2013-12-21
- atroche said “@qap so you think it’s almost twice as likely to occur now than you did before you heard the Overstock news? Do you think they’re in the same comparison class? Would love to know more about your process.” on 2013-12-22
- qap said “@atroche The news was surprising to me because it indicated a willingness of a large (1,600 employees — not as much as amazon’s 100,000, but still a large company) company to adopt bitcoin already. (continued)” on 2013-12-22
- qap said “This means that both 1. bitcoin is more likely to become more mainstream and 2. Amazon may be more willing to accept bitcoin without requiring it to be as mainstream as I expected they would.” on 2013-12-22
- Benquo estimated 50% and said “I don’t imagine myself surprised either way. Relative to Amazon’s scale it seems cheap enough to add a way to pay with bitcoins at some exchange rate.” on 2013-12-25
- Patrick Brinich-Langlois estimated 10% on 2013-12-26
- Emmanuel M. Smith estimated 60% on 2013-12-26
- fela estimated 8% on 2013-12-26
- ashrewdmint estimated 55% and said “I don’t see why Amazon couldn’t use something like BitPay. They don’t even have to hold BTC, which simplifies taxes. It’s pretty much zero-risk for them, assuming the regulatory environment is non-hostile.” on 2013-12-27
- Michael Dickens estimated 20% on 2013-12-29
- ChristianKl estimated 20% on 2014-01-02
- ChristianKl estimated 20% and said “Overstock has it’s history of accusing Wall Street of naked short selling to hurt the company. Given Bitcoins reputation as weaking core Wall Street system, Overstock might adopted it more for ideological reasons than economic ones. ” on 2014-01-02
- Nithi estimated 40% on 2014-01-23
- Vulture estimated 57% on 2014-01-23
- RandomThinker estimated 55% and said “I’m thinking of moving up now. Bitcoins have come a ways since even December. 5 years now feels like a long time.More likely now Amazon uses it and then abandons it by 2019, then not using it at all.” on 2014-01-23
- Calien estimated 60% on 2014-09-01
- rebellionkid estimated 30% on 2014-09-21
- tylercurtis estimated 60% on 2014-09-22
- from3004 estimated 40% on 2014-10-16
- themusicgod1 estimated 46% on 2016-03-15
- themusicgod1 said “point of contention: ‘using’ for purchasing ransomware or ‘using’ for allowing users to purchase product with bitcoin” on 2017-05-22
- Bruno Parga judged this prediction wrong on 2019-01-01.