A leak or source from inside the NSA indicates that a surveillance program forbidden after today by the Supreme Court, another federal court, or act of congress has continued with little to no disruption

Created by tedks on 2013-12-29; known on 2018-12-29; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-07-14.

tedks estimated 95% on 2013-12-29
bendini estimated 90% and said “probability on the low side because the most unlikely thing is a leak rather than the NSA staying within the confines of the law” on 2013-12-29
tedks said “I think that leaks are frequent enough that this will get hit in the next 5 years. There are seldom leaks as large-scale as Snowden’s, but there are plenty of leaks.” on 2013-12-30
Jayson Virissimo estimated 60% on 2013-12-30
JoshuaZ estimated 65% on 2013-12-30
deanmullen2014 estimated 60% on 2013-12-31
ChristianKl estimated 60% on 2014-01-02
themusicgod1 estimated 33% on 2016-07-24
bendini said “this seems harder to evaluate than a quick search, anyone got a smoking gun?” on 2019-01-04
tedks said “Time to judge this. I’ll need to find:1. Any NSA program pre-Snowden that was forbidden after today by an act of the courts or Congress (i.e., not executive)(cont)” on 2019-11-23
tedks said “2. A leak (not just any story, but I will accept interviews with anonymous sources) indicating that program has continued.” on 2019-11-23
PseudonymousUser judged this prediction wrong on 2020-07-14.
tedks judged this prediction unknown on 2021-06-14.
tedks said “Please only judge this prediction if you can cite evidence” on 2021-06-14
JoshuaZ said “Seems like by default this should be no unless there are obvious sources, news articles, etc. ” on 2021-06-15
tedks said “The fundamental prediction here is that the programs disclosed by Snowden continued. If none were ever forbidden, this prediction is trivially true.” on 2021-10-16
bendini said “https://twitter.com/Snowden/status/1491958334039154724 it was close, but 2013 Bendini was a little too cocky about the specifics” on 2022-02-11