Chelsea Manning will be be pardoned by the US government and undergo transgender surgery and become a popular advocate of free information in the US in the 2040s and 2050s

Created by deanmullen2014 on 2013-12-31; known on 2055-01-01

• deanmullen2014 estimated 75% on 2013-12-31
• a0c4a123f7 estimated 10% and said “Has to not happen until the 2040s or after the 2050s, has to be pardoned and undergo TG surgery, and become an advocate…I suspect in 20 years few people will even remember she’s rotting to death in a prison somewhere.” on 2014-01-01
• HonoreDB estimated 5% on 2014-01-04
• btrettel estimated 5% and said “Seems like a case of the conjunction fallacy to me. Plus I think it is unlikely she will be pardoned. Also, it’s unclear what “popular advocate” means here. I’m skeptical of her popularity in general, now or in the future.” on 2015-06-15
• JoshuaZ estimated 5% and said “Per btrettel” on 2015-06-15
• themusicgod1 estimated 3% and said “he’s a dead man walking at this point, imho” on 2017-01-13
• themusicgod1 said “[x] pardoned https://plus.google.com/105395547687614433866/posts/D5F24vT9pNz[x] popular advocate of free information in the US[ ] transgender surgery ” on 2017-01-17
• PseudonymousUser said “not pardoned, sentence commuted ” on 2017-01-18
• PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2017-01-18