The outbreak of a civil war in Bahrain between Summer and Autumn 2014

Created by deanmullen2014 on 2013-12-31; known on 2014-10-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-11-04.

• deanmullen2014 estimated 50% on 2013-12-31
• atroche estimated 5% on 2013-12-31
• ChristianKl estimated 15% on 2014-01-02
• KnaveOfAllTrades estimated 1% on 2014-10-18
• kuudes estimated 1% on 2014-10-24
• kuudes   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-11-04.