Someone will convince me betting money is an excellent means of epistemic calibration despite the arguments I made in my FB post about it. (OP here https://www.facebook.com/strohl89/posts/10152167620634598?stream_ref=10)

Created by briennestrohl on 2014-01-21; known on 2014-01-25; judged wrong by briennestrohl on 2014-01-25.

• briennestrohl estimated 15% on 2014-01-21
• briennestrohl changed the deadline from “on 2014-01-24” and changed their prediction from “Someone will convince me betting money is an excellent means of epistemic calibration despite the arguments I made in my FB post about it.” on 2014-01-22
• ciil estimated 10% and said “Not a huge fan of betting money either, so I don’t think anyone will be able to refute your argument.” on 2014-01-23
• JamieDuerden estimated 5% on 2014-01-24
• briennestrohl   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-01-25.
• Mati said “(to put it very simply) The first 10000$ you earn is more valuable than the second 10000$ you earn because you first need money to buy food, then money to buy toys. So even if you’re 50% sure, betting 1:1 is not a good idea. (to be continued)” on 2014-01-26
• Mati said “But if you’re well calibrated, I think making bets (small at first) in function of “units of value” (not exactly the same as money) is a good decision if you predict you would earn “units of value” in average.” on 2014-01-26
• Mati said “What made you changed your mind?” on 2014-01-26