Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality reaches a conclusion (not counting chapters explicitly denoted as Epilogues) before the end of 2014 and also before Homestuck finishes Act 7 (not counting “Psyche” fake-endings).

Created by orthonormal on 2014-01-22; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by orthonormal on 2015-01-15.

• orthonormal estimated 30% on 2014-01-22
• Vulture estimated 50% on 2014-01-22
• orthonormal estimated 0% and said “It’s possible that EY is horribly miscalibrated in the pessimistic direction in his latest Author’s Note, or that reality will intervene in that direction, but it sure isn’t likely.” on 2014-11-01
• orthonormal   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-01-15.