Princeton researchers: Facebook will lose 80% of its users by end of 2017

Created by RandomThinker on 2014-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Mati on 2017-12-31.

• RandomThinker estimated 25% on 2014-01-23
• RandomThinker said “http://business.time.com/2014/01/21/facebook-is-about-to-lose-80-of-its-users-study-says/?iid=gs-article-mostpop2” on 2014-01-23
• Michael Dickens estimated 20% on 2014-01-23
• Jedijuggler estimated 1% on 2014-01-23
• Jedijuggler   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-01-23.
• lavalamp   judged this prediction unknown on 2014-01-23.
• lavalamp estimated 8% and said “Can’t judge this until the end of 2017.” on 2014-01-23
• Mati estimated 5% on 2014-01-26
• Patrick Brinich-Langlois said “Monthly users, registered users, or what? Does this mean that 80% of its current users won’t be users in 2017 or that it will have fewer than 20% of the regular users it currently has?” on 2014-01-27
• procran estimated 2% on 2014-01-29
• reubensandwich estimated 5% on 2014-01-30
• kilobug estimated 35% and said “Assuming it means “active users” with a reasonable definition, like “connecting at least once a month”, not “registered usres”.” on 2014-01-31
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 20% on 2014-02-04
• moridinamael estimated 5% on 2014-02-21
• RandomThinker said “This looks highly unlikely still.” on 2015-01-11
• JoshuaZ estimated 25% on 2015-01-11
• EloiseRosen estimated 10% on 2015-01-25
• themusicgod1 estimated 49% on 2016-03-11
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 10% on 2016-03-11
• RandomThinker said “Err… unless something drastic happens, those Princeton people not looking so good.” on 2017-01-16
• Mati   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-12-31.