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HPMOR: final chapter to be published before Dec 1st of 2014

Created by sdr on 2014-01-24; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by ​ on 2014-12-01.

  • sdr estimated 35% on 2014-01-24
  • sdr said “From a marketing perspective, EYs current financial interests are at odds with HPMOR’s being finished; even though he have pre-committed to finish it in 2014. Advanced prediction: final chapter not to be published before dec 1st of 2014.” on 2014-01-24
  • ​ estimated 10% and said “Progress Report, Feb 2014: No progress in January, and “Further Progress Reports will arrive on the 1st of each month at 5pm Pacific Time, as always.”” on 2014-02-02
  • Mati estimated 43% and said “I hope it will last for 2-3 more years :-)” on 2014-02-14
  • ​ estimated 20% and said “EY: Ch. 102 is finished … at 3,874 words; and I’m 358 words into Ch. 103 … it may be a while before the Last Arc is complete … during summer, in what will hopefully be the middle of the interregnum, if I can really finish up this year” on 2014-03-02
  • qznc estimated 60% on 2014-07-15
  • Ham Nox estimated 25% on 2014-07-19
  • moonstne estimated 66% and said “I believe with >50% probability that we are on track for HPMOR to finish before the end of 2014. – ey” on 2014-07-28
  • JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2014-07-28
  • Ham Nox estimated 40% on 2014-07-29
  • Ham Nox estimated 20% on 2014-08-02
  • Grognor estimated 5% on 2014-09-05
  • sweeneyrod estimated 10% and said “Estimate prior to checking the latest progress reports” on 2014-11-15
  • sweeneyrod estimated 5% and said “Estimate after checking the latest progress report” on 2014-11-15
  • dpchalmers estimated 1% and said “I’m expecting it sometime between December and early next year.” on 2014-11-29
  • ​   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-12-01.