I will make good predictions in 2014. (ie. 40 to 60% of my predictions with an estimate between 40 and 60% will be true.)

Created by Mati on 2014-01-26; known on 2015-01-02; judged right by Mati on 2015-01-05.

• Mati estimated 50% on 2014-01-26
• Mati changed the deadline from “on 2014-12-31” and changed their prediction from “Prediction Book will have significantly improved my predictions before the end of 2014. 50% of my prediction between 40 and 60% will be true.” on 2014-01-26
• Mati changed the deadline from “on 2015-01-01” and changed their prediction from “I will have significantly improved my predictions before the end of 2014. 40 to 60% of my prediction between 40 and 60% will be true.” on 2014-01-26
• Mati changed the deadline from “on 2015-01-01” and changed their prediction from “I will have significantly improved my predictions before the end of 2014. (ie. 40 to 60% of my prediction between 40 and 60% will be true.)” on 2014-01-26
• Mati said “I’ve never seriously measured how well calibrated my predictions are. I’m new to PredictionBook. I want to measure how good/bad I am and try to improve.” on 2014-01-26
• Mati   judged this prediction right on 2015-01-05.