There is a terrorist attack in the USA killing > 100 people.

Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.

• Michael Dickens estimated 10% on 2014-01-28
• adbge estimated 6% on 2014-01-29
• PseudonymousUser said “https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_battles_and_other_violent_events_by_death_toll#Terrorist_attacks” on 2014-01-29
• PseudonymousUser estimated 10% on 2014-01-29
• mad estimated 5% and said “The wikipedia link says it’s unlikely. ” on 2014-01-30
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-01-01.