There will have been modular smart phones on the market before 2020.
- Mati estimated 75% on 2014-02-06
- jayk estimated 92% on 2014-02-10
- Ben Doherty estimated 15% and said “if you mean upgradable phones that are made of modules that home together to make a whole. (like phonebloks).” on 2014-02-11
- Mati said “yes, that’s what I mean” on 2014-02-11
- themusicgod1 said “Does fairphone count? https://www.fairphone.com/phone/” on 2016-05-01
- Mati said “it looks modular. although I also wrote that it needed to be “upgradable” (or customizable), and Fairphone only seems to have one possible module for each location on the phone. so I think I would go with no overall.” on 2020-01-03
- Mati said “Moto Z can have various hardware add-ons, but it’s not really the phone itself that’s modular: https://www.motorola.com/us/products/moto-z-family ; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moto_Z” on 2020-01-03
- Mati said “PH-1 was an earlier similar concept, with even less (only 1?) add-ons: https://www.essential.com/ ; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Essential_Phone” on 2020-01-03
- Mati said “the LG G5 also seems to have more add-ons than modules: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LG_G5” on 2020-01-03
- Mati said “I can’t find Shiftphones’ modules, but my guess is they only have replacement pieces: https://www.shiftphones.com/en/ ; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shiftphone” on 2020-01-03
- Mati said “here’s the list on Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modular_smartphone#Modular_phone_platforms” on 2020-01-03
- Mati judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-03.
- Bruno Parga said “I think it would be reasonable for Fairphone to count, but your definition is reasonable, too. Maybe if a new prediction is made with another future date, it could specify upgrade and customization?” on 2020-01-03
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