This site would become viral if the admins incorporated facebook integration (eg, your public predictions could automatically get shared on facebook).

Created by ZLM on 2014-02-14; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-07-14.

• ZLM estimated 100% on 2014-02-14
• ygert said “See my comment on prediction 23928.” on 2014-02-15
• a0c4a123f7 estimated 30% and said “Don’t judge people to like putting their money, social or otherwise, where their mouth is.” on 2014-02-15
• ygert said “@a0c4a123f7: Perhaps I spoke too harshly. I am fully in favor of money being put where one’s mouth is. (That’s the goal of this site, after all.) I in no way object to that part, and in fact fully support it.” on 2014-02-16
• ygert said “Predictions are, however, not intended to be site feedback, while the linked uservoice forums are intended for this purpose. The prediction itself is not bad in any way. It being the only vector for ZLM’s comment on the site is what I dislike.” on 2014-02-16
• a0c4a123f7 said “@ygert: Oh, not directed at you. I meant to respond to the prediction. Sorry about the confusion.” on 2014-02-16
• jasticE estimated 20% on 2014-02-23
• booradleytron estimated 55% on 2014-02-24
• lavalamp estimated 5% and said “y’all are way off. Very few people care about being personally well calibrated.” on 2014-02-25
• scrafty estimated 2% and said “one should have fairly strong priors against anything becoming viral” on 2014-03-04
• themusicgod1 said “define viral” on 2016-05-01
• PseudonymousUser said “This counterfactual statement did not obtain (become true) within the predictioneer’s committed timeframe. ” on 2020-07-14
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-07-14.