HPMoR: The spell of cursèd fire is Amaterasu.

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-02-15; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-23.

• KnaveOfAllTrades estimated 6% on 2014-02-15
• ygert estimated 1% and said “I’m pretty sure that it’s Fiendfyre… No reason for it to be anything else.” on 2014-02-15
• KnaveOfAllTrades said “Correct only if before this prediction EY already knew this.” on 2014-03-09
• KnaveOfAllTrades estimated 2% on 2014-03-23
• player_03 estimated 2% on 2014-04-26
• Ham Nox estimated 0% and said “no need to postulate outside fandoms when there’s a perfectly good example of cursed fire in the original.” on 2014-08-12
• KnaveOfAllTrades estimated 1% on 2014-10-20
• ygert said “I think at this point it’s pretty clear that Fiendfire is what was meant. If it was meant to be Amaterasu, it would have been mentioned.” on 2015-03-23
• ygert   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-03-23.
• KnaveOfAllTrades   judged this prediction unknown on 2015-03-23.
• KnaveOfAllTrades said “It’s somewhat circular to assume a low-probability event (we all put <=2% on it) didn’t happen because it wasn’t explicitly said to have happened, since…” on 2015-03-23
• KnaveOfAllTrades said “…the whole point is to test whether subtle, low-probability things happened. But I agree the probability is lower now the story is over and it was not mentioned, so happy to go with your judgement” on 2015-03-23
• KnaveOfAllTrades   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-03-23.