HP MoR: Mr. Hat & Cloak is Baba Yaga

Created by solipsist on 2014-02-27; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.

  • solipsist estimated 30% on 2014-02-27
  • solipsist changed the deadline from “on 2015-12-31” and changed their prediction from “HPMOR: Mr. Hat & Cloak is Baba Yaga” on 2014-03-08
  • solipsist said “Inside view: Baba Yaga screamed “Remember my name! It will have been I all along!” and won’t stop winking at me. Outside view: no one else thinks this so I am probably wrong. Where do you come from, strange little prediction?on 2014-03-11
  • solipsist estimated 80% and said “The world is crazy. I’m going with my gut.on 2014-07-28
  • solipsist estimated 35% and said “Did a third read, much less confident. Voice is sibilant, hands and feet never seen, could be a basilisk. Also Quirrell makes sense.on 2015-01-29
  • sweeneyrod estimated 20% and said “It’s plausible, but there are many options without much evidence to distinguish them. What do you think P(Baba Yaga is Nicolas Flamel) is?on 2015-01-29
  • JoshuaZ estimated 15% on 2015-01-29
  • solipsist   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-03-14.

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