Crimea or similar territory to be recognized by at least one country as not part of Ukraine by 2016-01-01.

Created by simplicio on 2014-02-28; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Silver on 2014-03-27.

• simplicio estimated 20% on 2014-02-28
• procran estimated 20% on 2014-03-01
• Ben Doherty estimated 50% and said “especially if that country is Russia” on 2014-03-02
• chemotaxis101 estimated 30% on 2014-03-02
• jkadlubo estimated 70% on 2014-03-04
• Tuxedage estimated 45% on 2014-03-04
• Silver estimated 80% on 2014-03-10
• vollmer estimated 40% on 2014-03-10
• Silver   judged this prediction right on 2014-03-27.