Tasha Fox will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (brains tribe, accountant)

Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-05-09.

• mad estimated 6% on 2014-03-01
• mad estimated 8% and said “Tribe swap seems good for her, now giving her slightly better than chance.” on 2014-03-19
• mad estimated 11% and said “Fewer contestants, needs to increase her probability to be better than chance” on 2014-04-04
• mad estimated 15% and said “better than chance ” on 2014-04-22
• mad   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-05-09.