Spencer will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (brains tribe, “the cochran who doesn't suck”)

Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-05-25.

• mad estimated 5% on 2014-03-01
• mad estimated 8% and said “Tribe swap seems good for him, now giving him slightly better than chance.” on 2014-03-19
• mad estimated 12% and said “Better than chance” on 2014-04-04
• mad estimated 15% and said “better than chance” on 2014-04-22
• mad estimated 20% and said “better than chance” on 2014-04-22
• mad estimated 40% on 2014-05-09
• mad said “If he can get to the finals, he will win.” on 2014-05-09
• mad   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-05-25.