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Eliezer will publish at least one HPMOR chapter this month.

Created by ygert on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-04-01; judged wrong by ​ on 2014-04-01.

  • ygert estimated 16% on 2014-03-01
  • Pluvialis estimated 12% on 2014-03-01
  • Mathias Zaman estimated 7% on 2014-03-01
  • Grognor estimated 20% on 2014-03-02
  • ​ estimated 2% and said “EY: … Ch. 102 is kinda short, and hence I’m going to save it to release it during summer, in what will hopefully be the middle of the interregnum, if I can really finish up this year. … further Progress Reports will arrive on the 1st of each month …” on 2014-03-02
  • jkadlubo estimated 0% on 2014-03-02
  • jasticE estimated 3% on 2014-03-03
  • Wes estimated 15% on 2014-03-04
  • slackson estimated 5% and said “Suubjectively it feels about this likely. If I imagine 20 months with similar prospectives for HPMoR chapters, I imagine being pleasantly surprised in one of them. ” on 2014-03-04
  • a0c4a123f7 estimated 2% and said “Last couple of mass updates occurred around four months apart. Also EY seems to imply a summer update. And almost third of the month is gone already.” on 2014-03-09
  • vollmer estimated 3% and said “@Kai Rathmann” on 2014-03-10
  • ​   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-04-01.