Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 was struck by a meteorite causing rapid disintegration. Alternatively, aircraft lengthening redesign gave way causing rapid disintegration.

Created by refnum on 2014-03-11; known on 2014-04-30; judged wrong by procran on 2014-05-05.

• refnum estimated 80% on 2014-03-11
• procran estimated 5% on 2014-03-11
• Silver estimated 5% on 2014-03-14
• procran estimated 1% on 2014-03-17
• mad estimated 1% and said “Low prior probability. I’m concerned about what “aircraft lengthening redesign” means, exactly – but if it’s a particular part failure chances are no evidence will be found anyway.” on 2014-03-20
• etarletons estimated 2% and said “This seems like an instance of conjunction fallacy.” on 2014-03-24
• Andrew MacFie estimated 1% on 2014-03-24
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% and said “Per etarleton” on 2014-03-28
• Ham Nox estimated 1% on 2014-04-21
• procran   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-05-05.