The public will either have at least six months advance notice prior to the use of the first quantum computer for bitcoin mining (w/ SHA256), or such a quantum computer will not exist prior to 2050.

Created by lavalamp on 2014-04-10; known on 2050-01-01

• lavalamp estimated 95% on 2014-04-10
• player_03 estimated 70% on 2014-04-24
• PseudonymousUser said “Under the advice of the NSA, Congress would probably restrict the sale of quantum computers until they could guarantee that all vulnerable commercially-used cryptosystems were phased out. ” on 2016-01-04
• PseudonymousUser said “This would almost certainly require more than six months, and would require full public knowledge.” on 2016-01-04
• PseudonymousUser estimated 95% on 2016-01-04
• themusicgod1 estimated 48% on 2017-05-22