The public will either have at least six months advance notice prior to the use of the first quantum computer for bitcoin mining (w/ SHA256), or such a quantum computer will not exist prior to 2050.

Created by lavalamp on 2014-04-10; known on 2050-01-01

  • lavalamp estimated 95% on 2014-04-10
  • player_03 estimated 70% on 2014-04-24
  • Tapetum-Lucidum said “Under the advice of the NSA, Congress would probably restrict the sale of quantum computers until they could guarantee that all vulnerable commercially-used cryptosystems were phased out. on 2016-01-04
  • Tapetum-Lucidum said “This would almost certainly require more than six months, and would require full public knowledge.on 2016-01-04
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 95% on 2016-01-04
  • themusicgod1 estimated 48% on 2017-05-22

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