Global poverty will be the most common response to the effective-altruist survey question “Which of the following causes do you think you should devote resources to?” http://lesswrong.com/lw/k60/2014_survey_of_effective_altruists/

Created by Patrick Brinich-Langlois on 2014-05-01; known on 2014-07-02; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.

  • Patrick Brinich-Langlois estimated 80% on 2014-05-01
  • Patrick Brinich-Langlois changed the deadline from “on 2014-07-01” and changed their prediction from “Global poverty will be the most common response to the effective-altruist survey question “Which of the following causes do you think you should devote resources to?” http://lesswrong.com/lw/k60/2014_survey_of_effective_altruists/#comments” on 2014-05-01
  • Patrick Brinich-Langlois said “I’d be less confident if the other choices weren’t subdivided so much.on 2014-05-01
  • tog22 estimated 60% on 2014-05-01
  • Peter Hurford estimated 55% on 2014-05-02
  • raisin estimated 70% on 2014-05-03
  • Michael Dickens estimated 80% on 2014-05-11
  • Soeren estimated 60% on 2014-05-12
  • rebellionkid estimated 50% on 2014-05-22
  • Neznans estimated 40% on 2014-06-19
  • Jenson estimated 75% on 2014-06-26
  • rebellionkid   judged this prediction right on 2015-03-24.

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