The Botworld paper will cause someone from IDSIA to express some opinion about AIXItl working in only restricted environments, which that person from IDSIA says they did not possess before reading about Botworld, or the update is apparent from their previ

Created by yudkowsky@gmail.com on 2014-05-04; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by orthonormal on 2015-01-15.

• yudkowsky@gmail.com estimated 10% on 2014-05-04
• yudkowsky@gmail.com said “Dispute about probable expository effectiveness of the Botworld example with Nate and Benja.” on 2014-05-04
• orthonormal estimated 15% and said “The paper might end up better than currently constituted, but I’d be surprised if it did so and was still essentially Botworld.” on 2014-05-04
• So8res estimated 60% on 2014-05-04
• So8res estimated 2% and said “It did successfully change the mind of one of the two loudest LW commenters who had previously misunderstood our concerns about AIXItl, but I’m fairly sure that that user does not work at IDSIA.” on 2014-11-17
• orthonormal   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-01-15.