Conditional on the UK holding an in-out referendum on the EU before 7 May 2020 the winner will be OUT.

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-05-22; known on 2020-05-07; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-09.

• rebellionkid estimated 70% on 2014-05-22
• nobody521 estimated 20% on 2014-05-24
• RandomThinker estimated 45% on 2014-07-09
• RandomThinker said “Probably lower, cause they’d never hold one if the answer was out.” on 2014-07-09
• RandomThinker said “On the other hand, I don’t think they’ll hold one, so if they do, probably something unusual has happened.” on 2014-07-09
• JoshuaZ estimated 45% on 2014-07-10
• themusicgod1 said “brexit – out” on 2016-07-09
• themusicgod1   judged this prediction right on 2016-07-09.
• RandomThinker said “This is a heck of a prediction.” on 2017-01-16