Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.

Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-17; known on 2024-06-16

• aarongertler estimated 30% on 2014-06-17
• RandomThinker estimated 15% on 2014-06-17
• rebellionkid estimated 10% on 2014-06-17
• JoshuaZ estimated 5% on 2014-06-17
• HonoreDB said “What’s the difference between “a draw for Black” and a draw for White in this context?” on 2014-06-19
• azax1 estimated 1% on 2014-06-20
• azax1 said “HonoreDB: Here it means that Black can force a draw. We could conceivably know that White could force a draw, but not whether or not White could force a win, which would be different from the prediction as currently stated.” on 2014-06-20
• deschutron estimated 53% on 2014-06-25
• Michael Dickens estimated 10% on 2014-06-25
• waveman estimated 35% and said “Chess is quite huge as a search space. I guess it’s possible but I see no evidence that it’s close.” on 2014-06-29
• Ixiel estimated 45% and said “I wish this were two propositions, but I can multiply.” on 2014-07-14
• qznc estimated 30% on 2014-07-14
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 20% on 2014-07-15
• Mati estimated 9% on 2014-07-28
• KnaveOfAllTrades estimated 1% on 2014-10-18
• RandomThinker estimated 25% on 2015-01-11
• benwr estimated 1% on 2015-01-12
• sweeneyrod estimated 10% on 2015-01-13
• btrettel estimated 1% on 2015-10-09
• Medea estimated 5% on 2015-10-09
• PseudonymousUser estimated 2% on 2016-02-17
• splorridge estimated 3% on 2016-02-17
• themusicgod1 estimated 11% on 2016-05-01
• Leo estimated 1% and said “We just don’t have the raw compute to solve chess anytime soon.” on 2021-12-03
• n99 estimated 1% on 2022-10-28
• JoshuaZ estimated 2% on 2022-10-28