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Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.

Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-17; known 27 days ago

  • aarongertler estimated 30% on 2014-06-17
  • RandomThinker estimated 15% on 2014-06-17
  • rebellionkid estimated 10% on 2014-06-17
  • JoshuaZ estimated 5% on 2014-06-17
  • HonoreDB said “What’s the difference between “a draw for Black” and a draw for White in this context?on 2014-06-19
  • azax1 estimated 1% on 2014-06-20
  • azax1 said “HonoreDB: Here it means that Black can force a draw. We could conceivably know that White could force a draw, but not whether or not White could force a win, which would be different from the prediction as currently stated.on 2014-06-20
  • deschutron estimated 53% on 2014-06-25
  • Michael Dickens estimated 10% on 2014-06-25
  • waveman estimated 35% and said “Chess is quite huge as a search space. I guess it’s possible but I see no evidence that it’s close.on 2014-06-29
  • Ixiel estimated 45% and said “I wish this were two propositions, but I can multiply.on 2014-07-14
  • qznc estimated 30% on 2014-07-14
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 20% on 2014-07-15
  • Mati estimated 9% on 2014-07-28
  • KnaveOfAllTrades estimated 1% on 2014-10-18
  • RandomThinker estimated 25% on 2015-01-11
  • benwr estimated 1% on 2015-01-12
  • sweeneyrod estimated 10% on 2015-01-13
  • btrettel estimated 1% on 2015-10-09
  • Medea estimated 5% on 2015-10-09
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 2% on 2016-02-17
  • splorridge estimated 3% on 2016-02-17
  • themusicgod1 estimated 11% on 2016-05-01
  • Leo estimated 1% and said “We just don’t have the raw compute to solve chess anytime soon.on 2021-12-03
  • n99 estimated 1% on 2022-10-28
  • JoshuaZ estimated 2% on 2022-10-28