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There will be fewer than 20 wagers on this prediction two weeks from today.

Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-18; known on 2014-07-01; judged right by aarongertler on 2014-07-01.

  • aarongertler estimated 30% on 2014-06-18
  • Ben Doherty estimated 70% on 2014-06-23
  • Michael Dickens estimated 80% and said “If this prediction were going to get popular, it probably would have by now.on 2014-06-25
  • Jenson estimated 95% on 2014-06-26
  • fela estimated 55% on 2014-06-27
  • ygert estimated 90% on 2014-06-27
  • Ham Nox estimated 85% and said “self-referential brain breaking.on 2014-06-27
  • booradleytron estimated 90% on 2014-06-27
  • lettergram estimated 90% on 2014-06-28
  • waveman estimated 10% on 2014-06-29
  • Patrick Brinich-Langlois estimated 92% on 2014-06-30
  • Roxolan estimated 55% and said “How many people will add last-minute predictions (even though those are worthless for self-calibration)?on 2014-06-30
  • aarongertler   judged this prediction right on 2014-07-01.