“no matter how many scare headlines you read, ISIS will never take Baghdad” – The war nerd.

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-18; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by rebellionkid on 2016-01-05.

• rebellionkid estimated 80% on 2014-06-18
• rebellionkid said “ISIS taking baghdad means two reputable nationals reporting ISIS being in de facto control of the majority of the city for more than 72 hours.” on 2014-06-18
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 70% on 2014-06-18
• JoshuaZ estimated 85% on 2014-06-19
• Temeraire estimated 80% on 2014-06-20
• tedks estimated 95% on 2014-06-23
• deschutron estimated 80% on 2014-06-25
• Ben Doherty estimated 65% on 2014-06-26
• RandomThinker estimated 65% and said “Just on the reputation of the war nerd. Hes pretty good.” on 2014-07-09
• hampuslj estimated 60% on 2014-09-23
• tedks estimated 99% and said “doesn’t look like it’s happening” on 2014-12-18
• rebellionkid   judged this prediction right on 2016-01-05.