“The average European unemployment rate for 2009-2018 (i.e., the next decade) will be at least 1% higher than U.S. unemployment rate.” Bryan Caplan

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-24; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.

• rebellionkid estimated 80% on 2014-06-24
• rebellionkid said “Full details of the bet: http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2009/05/ill_bet_on_it_i.html” on 2014-06-24
• Michael Dickens estimated 70% and said “1% means one percentage point, not one percent. That is, if US unemployment is 10% then European unemployment must be at least 11%.” on 2014-07-01
• Ben Doherty estimated 65% on 2014-07-02
• RandomThinker estimated 65% on 2014-07-03
• Temeraire estimated 80% on 2014-07-08
• RoryS estimated 70% on 2015-05-13
• Temeraire estimated 95% and said “Even if the gap narrows by 4% the US will still win.http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/File:Unemployment_rates_EU-28_EA-19_US_and_Japan_seasonally_adjusted_January_2000_December_2015.png” on 2016-02-12
• themusicgod1 estimated 58% on 2016-05-22
• elephantower estimated 80% on 2016-07-10
• Bruno Parga said “There was a bet at 1.5% and Caplan won. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1qShKedFJptpxfTHl9MBtHARAiurX-WK6ChrMgQRQz-0/edit” on 2020-01-08
• Bruno Parga   judged this prediction right on 2020-01-08.