Iraq splits into 3, (either 3 distinct states or a single federal government of 3 autonomous regions), before 2016

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-25; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2016-01-05.

• rebellionkid estimated 40% on 2014-06-25
• rebellionkid said “De facto this is the case already. The question here is about formal de jure separation. ” on 2014-06-25
• RandomThinker estimated 45% and said “I think if it happens, it’s likely to be sooner (<2016) than later 2020” on 2014-07-09
• rebellionkid estimated 30% on 2014-12-06
• rebellionkid   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-01-05.