Iraq splits into 3, (either 3 distinct states or a single federal government of 3 autonomous regions), before 2020

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.

• rebellionkid estimated 80% on 2014-06-25
• rebellionkid said “De facto this is the case already. The question here is about formal de jure separation. ” on 2014-06-25
• Ben Doherty estimated 20% on 2014-06-27
• RandomThinker estimated 55% and said “Possible” on 2014-07-09
• themusicgod1 estimated 38% on 2016-07-09
• elephantower estimated 20% and said “The chaos created by ISIS won’t resolve itself by 2020, which would be a precondition for a de jure state to be formed in ISIS territory, and also makes it unlikely that the Baghdad government would relinquish control over the area” on 2016-07-10
• elephantower said “Also, a de jure independent Kurdistan looks pretty unlikely: it’s widely believed that recognizing Kurdistan would increase instability and set back the establishment of (a) stable and West-friendly government(s) over Iraq” on 2016-07-10
• elephantower said “I imagine Kurdistan has bigger worries at the moment as well ” on 2016-07-10
• elephantower said “With a low oil price and Israel apparently buying tons of Kurdish oil, the impetus for de jure recognition in order to sell oil directly on international markets is diminished as well” on 2016-07-10
• Bruno Parga said “Iraq has been federal since the 2005 Constitution, but the only region that’s autonomous is Kurdistan. Marking wrong.” on 2020-01-01
• Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-01.