My step-sister's marriage will still be intact (not separated or divorced or remarried) five years from now.

Created by Ham Nox on 2014-06-27; known on 2019-06-27; judged right by stepan on 2020-03-04.

• Ham Nox estimated 75% on 2014-06-27
• JoshuaZ said “I strongly suggest you make this prediction private. People can react negatively to having predictions about this sort of thing. ” on 2014-06-27
• Ham Nox said “eh. I will be very surprised if they ever find out about it without me telling them. These are the sort of predictions I tend to brag about after the fact anyways.” on 2014-06-30
• tedks estimated 69% and said “calibration arbitrage” on 2014-07-06
• stepan estimated 90% on 2019-06-26
• stepan   judged this prediction right on 2020-03-04.