My step-sister's marriage will still be intact (not separated or divorced or remarried) five years from now.
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-06-27; known in 2 days
- Ham Nox estimated 75% on 2014-06-27
- JoshuaZ said “I strongly suggest you make this prediction private. People can react negatively to having predictions about this sort of thing. ” on 2014-06-27
- Ham Nox said “eh. I will be very surprised if they ever find out about it without me telling them. These are the sort of predictions I tend to brag about after the fact anyways.” on 2014-06-30
- tedks estimated 69% and said “calibration arbitrage” on 2014-07-06
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