I will move out of the small suburban city in northern California where I have lived for 14 years, before March 1, 2012

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-07-21; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-03-01.

• PseudonymousUser estimated 62% on 2011-07-21
• PseudonymousUser estimated 50% and said “adjusting based on previous overconfidence and slow-ish progress” on 2011-09-02
• PseudonymousUser estimated 20% on 2011-12-01
• PseudonymousUser estimated 7% on 2012-01-04
• PseudonymousUser estimated 2% on 2012-02-05
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-03-01.