Eliezer will state that he has finished writing HPMOR by the end of 2014.

Created by Calien on 2014-08-19; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.

• Calien estimated 30% on 2014-08-19
• TeMPOraL estimated 30% on 2014-08-19
• Porejide estimated 60% on 2014-08-20
• ChristianKl estimated 35% on 2014-08-29
• Elua estimated 37% on 2014-08-31
• Elua estimated 37% on 2014-08-31
• Elua estimated 37% on 2014-08-31
• Elua estimated 37% on 2014-08-31
• Elua estimated 37% on 2014-08-31
• gimpf estimated 40% on 2014-08-31
• PseudonymousUser estimated 50% on 2014-09-01
• rebellionkid estimated 40% on 2014-09-06
• MattG estimated 20% on 2014-09-23
• Emmanuel M. Smith estimated 55% on 2014-10-24
• from3004 estimated 65% on 2014-10-24
• from3004 estimated 15% and said “In a recent comment thread, he said he would be done “around Febuary” IIRC” on 2014-11-26
• dpchalmers estimated 5% on 2014-11-29
• qznc estimated 2% on 2014-12-03
• kilobug estimated 3% on 2014-12-29
• rebellionkid   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-12-31.