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Self-driving cars will replace human drivers on public road in at least one country before 2024.

Created by TeMPOraL on 2014-08-24; known on 2023-12-31

  • TeMPOraL estimated 80% on 2014-08-24
  • TeMPOraL changed the deadline from “on 2024-08-24on 2014-08-24
  • ChristianKl said “Do you mean completely replace?on 2014-08-29
  • Calien estimated 50% on 2014-09-01
  • Ben Doherty estimated 55% on 2014-09-02
  • Pablo estimated 10% and said “You are predicting that (1) self-driving cars will be commercially available by 2024 and that (2) such cars will by then have replaced conventional cars. I think (2) is much more likely than (1), which is not super likely.on 2015-02-10
  • Pablo said “I meant to write: “I think (2) is much LESS likely than (1)”on 2015-02-10
  • JoshuaZ said “Completely replace or replace on some roads is really important as a distinction here. on 2015-02-11
  • penten estimated 5% and said “Assuming “replace completely”, maybe a tiny island nation with very few cars in the first place? Singapore could stop issuing COEs and get rid of all private cars within 10 years — in theoryon 2016-12-14

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