Self-driving cars will replace human drivers on public road in at least one country before 2024.

Created by TeMPOraL on 2014-08-24; known on 2023-12-31

• TeMPOraL estimated 80% on 2014-08-24
• TeMPOraL changed the deadline from “on 2024-08-24” on 2014-08-24
• ChristianKl said “Do you mean completely replace?” on 2014-08-29
• Calien estimated 50% on 2014-09-01
• Ben Doherty estimated 55% on 2014-09-02
• Pablo estimated 10% and said “You are predicting that (1) self-driving cars will be commercially available by 2024 and that (2) such cars will by then have replaced conventional cars. I think (2) is much more likely than (1), which is not super likely.” on 2015-02-10
• Pablo said “I meant to write: “I think (2) is much LESS likely than (1)”” on 2015-02-10
• JoshuaZ said “Completely replace or replace on some roads is really important as a distinction here. ” on 2015-02-11
• penten estimated 5% and said “Assuming “replace completely”, maybe a tiny island nation with very few cars in the first place? Singapore could stop issuing COEs and get rid of all private cars within 10 years — in theory” on 2016-12-14