The margin of victory in the scottish referendum is less than 1%.

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-13; known on 2014-09-19; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.

• rebellionkid estimated 70% on 2014-09-13
• scav estimated 6% and said “It’s quite a small target to hit, even if the likely spread of votes doesn’t cover 100%.” on 2014-09-14
• Silver estimated 5% on 2014-09-17
• rebellionkid estimated 30% and said “Polls have calmed, should be close but not that close.” on 2014-09-17
• JoshuaZ estimated 5% on 2014-09-17
• simplicio estimated 10% and said “You mean either way, right?” on 2014-09-18
• rebellionkid estimated 5% on 2014-09-19
• rebellionkid   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-09-19.