Australia will see its first domestic, large scale “terror” attack within six months of becoming involved in the ISIS campaign.

Created by Mike on 2014-09-15; known on 2015-03-31; judged wrong by Mike on 2015-03-31.

• Mike estimated 60% on 2014-09-15
• Mike estimated 40% on 2014-09-15
• phreeza estimated 5% and said “Isis has not demonstrated the ability to carry out attacks in the west so far, so i give this a low probability” on 2014-09-19
• rebellionkid estimated 5% on 2014-09-19
• JoshuaZ estimated 15% on 2014-09-20
• aarongertler estimated 4% on 2014-09-27
• Mike said “I wouldn’t say it’ll be ISIS that will be responsible @phreeza – it’ll be sympathizers.” on 2014-09-30
• rebellionkid said “I assume the recent events in Sidney are not “large scale”?” on 2014-12-18
• Mike said “Yeah – one of the things I’ve learned from prediction book is to better define my criteria. My original thinking was something along the lines of the bombing of public transport or a public venue.” on 2015-01-14
• Calien estimated 4% on 2015-02-02
• Serge estimated 10% on 2015-03-30
• Mike   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-03-31.