At least one Tory MP defects to UKIP by the end of this parliament.

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-26; known on 2015-05-07; judged right by rebellionkid on 2014-09-27.

• rebellionkid estimated 80% on 2014-09-26
• rebellionkid   judged this prediction right on 2014-09-27.